US talks pose a “dilemma” for Greenland and Denmark: analysts

LONDON — US officials are expected to meet with their Danish and Greenlandic counterparts in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, amid President Donald Trump’s continued expression of intent to seize the semi-autonomous Arctic region despite unanimous opposition in both Copenhagen and Nuuk.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt are scheduled to lead the delegation to meet with Foreign Minister Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance. Greenland is an autonomous region within the Kingdom of Denmark.

And in Denmark, “this is the big national news,” Jonas Parillo Plesner, a Danish political analyst and former diplomat, told ABC News. “If the adage of Trump’s first term was: ‘You’ve got to take it seriously, but not literally,’ I think the adage this time is: ‘You’ve got to take it seriously, literally.’

Trump first raised the possibility of taking over the territory during his first term, when Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed the idea as “ridiculous.” Trump’s second term saw the president speak more forcefully about the proposal.

“Even from a year ago, I see quite a stark difference in the positions of both Greenland and Denmark, that this has the potential to be really dangerous and life-changing for the Kingdom of Denmark,” said Parillo Plesner, who is now executive director of the Copenhagen-based nonprofit Alliance of Democracies.

Mikkel Runge Olsen, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, told ABC News that the uproar raises deeper questions among Danes and Greenlanders about their long-standing relations with the United States.

“Is this the United States now? A superpower going around invading its little democratic allies?” he asked. “That’s scary to think about.”

He added: “Just think what this will do to the American alliance system around the world.” “What kind of signal are you sending – if you are allied with the United States, you may be invaded when it suits the United States.”

“You need ownership”

Trump has repeatedly indicated that US sovereignty over the world’s largest island is necessary to ensure American security and weaken Chinese and Russian influence in the Arctic region.

As part of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland is covered by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) collective defense clause. Greenland hosts the US Pitovik space base and about 150 US soldiers, after the US dramatically reduced its presence from its highs during the Cold War.

The 1951 defense agreement gives the US military access to Greenland, and Danish politicians have repeatedly expressed their willingness to work with Washington to expand the US and NATO presence there.

Danish officials also sought to deflect concerns about the supposed vulnerability of the Arctic. Last year, Copenhagen announced a $6.5 billion Arctic defense package in response to US criticism that it had failed to provide adequate protection for Greenland.

But Trump and his administration seem undeterred. “One way or another, we’re going to get Greenland,” the president told reporters aboard Air Force One this weekend.

“If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will, and I won’t let that happen,” Trump said, before mocking Danish military power on the island.

“Basically, their defense is two dog sleds,” Trump said. “Meanwhile, there are Russian destroyers and submarines and Chinese destroyers and submarines everywhere.”

Asked if there was an agreement to be reached to avoid further tensions, Trump said he “would love to” because “it would be easier.”

But when pressed, the president said: “I can put a lot of soldiers there now if I want. But you need more than that. You need ownership.”

Ahead of this week’s meeting, Danish and Greenlandic politicians issued statements once again rejecting any suggestion of a US takeover of the island, statements supported by other European leaders.

“If the United States decides to attack another NATO country, everything will stop, including NATO and thus security after World War II,” Frederiksen said in a statement.

“Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Greenland is a member of NATO through the Commonwealth and therefore the defense of Greenland is through NATO,” the government in Nuuk said in a statement.

Leaders of the five political parties that hold seats in Greenland’s parliament also issued a joint statement. They said: “We don’t want to be Americans, we don’t want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders.”

Before heading to the United States on Tuesday, Rasmussen, the Danish Foreign Minister, told reporters in Copenhagen: “The reason we requested the meeting we have now is to move this whole discussion, which has not become less tense since we last met, into a conference room where we can look each other in the eye and talk about these matters.”

Appeal to the “deal maker”

Olsen, of the Danish Institute for International Studies, said Trump’s recent comments “should worry Danish politicians.” His apparent dismissal of Copenhagen’s efforts to boost its Arctic preparedness “means he either hasn’t noticed” or “he doesn’t care. Either way, it’s very bad.”

Trump told the New York Times that he believes US ownership of Greenland “is what I feel is psychologically necessary for success.” Olsen said this was also “problematic” for Copenhagen. “How do you deal with that?” he asked.

“This is the conundrum for Danish and Greenlandic politicians, who are trying not to provoke Trump too much and trying to give him something,” Olsen said.

He added: “It will be difficult to compromise if all he wants is ownership.”

Parillo Plesner, a former Danish diplomat, said the experiences of other countries during Trump’s second term may provide models.

Trump’s focus on Panama and perceived Chinese encroachment led to a proposed deal for a US company to take control of two ports there owned by a consortium in Hong Kong. The president described the deal as “restoring the Panama Canal.”

José Raul Molino, President of Panama, addressed Trump’s comments about the Panama Canal in an

In Ukraine, Kiev eased US pressure by agreeing to a deal to share rare earth minerals as part of a reconstruction investment fund between the United States and Ukraine.

“There’s also a very practical side to Trump, which is the deal maker,” Parrillo-Plesner said. “I think our side needs to give him something to work with,” he added.

That could mean new commitments on the US military deployment in Greenland, an agreement regarding the region’s untapped mineral wealth, or a pledge to do more to prevent authoritarian states from asserting their ambitions in the Arctic, Parrillo-Plesner said.

He added that it is not clear what might attract the American side. “We have seen for 30 years that the United States only wanted to reduce its presence there and used it only for limited missile defense purposes,” he said.

Regarding Greenland’s anticipated mineral wealth, Parrillo-Plesner said the U.S. government and private companies have been largely uninterested given the territory’s inhospitable weather and terrain, extraction challenges, and global market forces.

Olsen said a symbolic win might be enough to soften the blow for Trump’s campaign.

“It will be interesting to see how far Danish and Greenlandic politicians feel they can go to avoid being humiliated, and in order to avoid handing Greenland’s subway over to bullies,” Olsen continued.

“But again, the risks are very high, so I don’t rule it out, and I don’t rule out that if this is something that could solve the crisis.”

Meanwhile, both analysts said Copenhagen and Nok are likely to focus on strengthening an image of internal unity and European solidarity, with support from the US Congress and NATO-led Arctic security.

“Trump’s policy line is not impenetrable,” Olsen said, noting opposition from American voters and members of Congress – including prominent Republicans.

“At some point, Trump may decide it’s no longer worth it, and in that case, it might be wise to offer him some way to save face and get out of it,” he said.

But Parrillo-Plesner said months of back-and-forth over Greenland had already done significant damage to transatlantic sentiment in Denmark, in a country he said has long prided itself on broad support for NATO and close ties with U.S. forces. Danish forces, for example, suffered a similar casualty rate per capita as the United States in the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan.

This strength of feeling “has declined dramatically,” he said.