GOP remains competitive in midterms despite negative ratings for Trump: ABC/Post/Ipsos poll
The midterm elections are traditionally considered a referendum on the president, and recent polls by ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos show that President Donald Trump is a deeply unpopular president who faces negative ratings on various issues along with a majority of Americans who oppose him on key policy positions. But with Americans distrusting Democrats more than Republicans To deal with the country’s most critical issues – registered voters say they would be nearly split between the two parties if they voted today.
Just a week before the first voters go to the polls for primaries in some states Conduct an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll using the Ipsos knowledge panel America’s registered voters are nearly split between supporting the Democratic or Republican candidate in the US House of Representatives races in their congressional district this fall, 47% to 45%.
President Donald Trump speaks during the “Angel Families Remembrance Ceremony” at the White House in Washington, February 23, 2026.
Win McNamee/Getty Images
This gap widens slightly to 4 points among adults overall, 43% for Democrats and 39% for Republicans. These margins are nearly identical when requested by ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos in October.
In a February 2022 ABC News/Washington Post pollformer President Joe Biden had an approval rating of 37% and voters favored the Republican candidates in the midterm question by 7 points. That year, Republicans went on to win the House of Representatives. In a January 2018 ABC/Post pollTrump received an approval rating of 36%, and voters preferred the Democrats by 12 points. Democrats won the House of Representatives that year.
Today, Trump’s approval rating is 39%. But Americans do not trust Democrats more than Republicans to deal with the country’s problems, such as the cost of living or immigration. Clearly, voters skeptical of Trump did not believe the Democrats’ messages, at least not yet.
Almost all voters who strongly approve of Trump say they would vote for the Republican nominee if the midterm elections were held today (97%), and 87% of those who “somewhat” approve of him say they would vote Republican. But while about 9 in 10 who strongly disapprove of Trump will vote for the Democratic nominee, among those who somewhat disapprove of the president, 46% will vote for the Republican nominee and 32% will vote for the Democrat in the midterm elections.
96% of registered Democratic voters support their party’s nominee; A similar 94% of registered Republican voters support their party’s nominee.
Independent voters support Democrats by 15 points, 48% to 33%. In a February 2022 ABC News/Washington Post poll, independent voters favored Republican candidates by 14 points — and the GOP continued to win in Congress. In a January 2018 poll, independent voters favored Democratic candidates by the same margin — and Democrats won the House in November.
Nationalized voting, FBI ballot counting, and voter ID laws
Trump has continued to publicly repeat unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, despite all the evidence showing that Biden was legally elected and there was no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
Earlier this month, Trump doubled down on his previous suggestion that the federal government should “interfere” in state elections, arguing that Republicans should “nationalize” elections in response to his persistent false claims of voter fraud and refusal to accept his loss in 2020.
Most Americans (54%) oppose the federal government taking over the administration of elections and counting votes in some states, while only 23% support it.
About 9 in 10 Democrats (88%) and more than half of independents (55%) oppose the federal government taking over elections in certain states, while just over half of Republicans (53%) support it. About two-thirds of MAGA Republicans (66%) support it, compared to about 2 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans (21%).
Trump has gone so far as to want to revisit the 2020 election by having the FBI seize ballots from Fulton County, Georgia, where he lost in 2020. Ballots in that election were counted three separate times and the results were confirmed each time.
When asked about the FBI confiscating ballots for the 2020 presidential election in Fulton County, Georgia, opposition outweighed support, 45% to 24% with 32% expressing no opinion.
Members of the FBI’s Evidence Response Team hold cordon tape outside the Fulton County Election Center and Operations Center after the FBI executed a search warrant there in connection with the 2020 election, according to a law enforcement official familiar with the matter, in Union City, Georgia, on January 28, 2026.
Alyssa Poynter/Reuters
While two-thirds of MAGA Republicans support the FBI’s seizure of ballots in Fulton County, only about 2 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans do, and nearly half say they have no opinion.
Trump’s repeated and unsubstantiated accusations of voter fraud are also linked to his support for the Save America Act, legislation passed by the House of Representatives earlier this month. The legislation would restrict mail-in ballots, require photo ID, and force states to require proof of citizenship when people register to vote in federal elections.
Although both voter fraud and noncitizen voting are extremely rare problems, Americans generally support voter ID laws. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds that most Americans support more restrictive voter registration laws under the SAVE Act.
About 6 in 10 Americans say they support anyone who registers to vote in federal elections providing proof of U.S. citizenship, while about 2 in 10 oppose it. The question specified that people who register to vote will need to show a U.S. passport, birth certificate with matching photo ID, or other official documents proving citizenship and identity.
Trump and the future of the Republican Party
Despite Trump’s severe unpopularity and negative assessments of his policies and positions, Republicans still largely approve of him and say their party should follow the president’s leadership, a number that rose in the latest poll.
The poll found that 71% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Republican leaders should follow Trump’s lead, while 28% say leaders in their party should lead the party in a different direction. The percentage who say the party should follow Trump rose from 60% in 2022 and 57% in 2021.
About 9 in 10 Republican MAGA supporters — who make up 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — say the party should follow Trump’s lead, compared with about 4 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans. More than half, 56%, of non-coalition Republicans — who make up 42% of the party — say Republican leaders should lead the party in a different direction.
methodology – The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted via the Ipsos KnowledgePanel on a probability basis, February 12-17, 2026, among 2,589 U.S. adults, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The margins of error are larger between samples of partisan subgroups and other subgroups.
See PDF for full results and detailed methodology.
Email ABCNEWS.Polls@abc.com To be added to ABC News’ ballot distribution list.
More ABC News polls can be found at abcnews.com. Media contacts: Jenny Kidas and Van Scott.
Previous versions:
Americans oppose the tactics used by ICE to enforce immigration laws by a margin of 2:1
A majority of Americans disapprove of the way Trump is handling tariffs
Most Americans disapprove of Trump on some issues; Americans do not trust the ability of Democrats in Congress to deal with the problems
Immigration is Trump’s best and worst issue: ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll
